In this context, what should United States policy be toward Islam, and how can the United States in its leadership role develop a considered, comprehensive policy toward the arc of crisis and the role of Islam in it?

First, the United States must recognize that the disturbing proliferation of local and regional conflicts in the arc threaten major, even vital, U.S. interests. Underscoring the importance to the interests of the United States and the industrialized democracies is the critical geographical factor that in the arc of crisis are located vast oil and natural gas reserves and points of pipeline delivery. The arc is home to approximately three-quarters of the world's oil and gas reserves. We must take into consideration the impact conflicts in this region have on energy supply, energy security, and pricing. Indeed, we recently fought a war in the Persian Gulf to reverse aggression and protect precisely such interests. As we look ahead into the twenty-first century, energy needs will increase, especially as countries such as China and India proceed with their economic development.

Continuing turmoil in Bosnia could ignite a broader war in the Balkans with serious implications for European security, NATO and Russia. A prolonged conflict in Chechnya could undermine Russia's stability and divert Moscow from democratization and economic reforms. The Nagorno-Karabagh conflict can drag Turkey in on the side of the Azeris against the Armenians, risking Russian intervention and causing tensions in Turkey's relations with Europe and the United States. The overthrow of the Algerian regime by Islamic extremists would create a dangerous precedent in the Maghreb and the Arab World, with serious implications for European countries, especially France with its large immigrant population from the Maghreb. In the absence of timely forward movement in the Arab-Israeli peace process in the Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese tracks, groups like Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hizbollah can be counted on to maximize their efforts to scuttle the whole effort. The failure to move the peace process forward would have serious implications for Egypt, the cornerstone for the structure of Arab/Israeli peace, itself facing threats from Muslim extremists.

Further East, Kashmir remains a potential powder keg. Tensions between Muslims and Hindus there could exacerbate Indo-Pak relations and lead to another military conflict. The situation in Afghanistan, where various Islamist groups are vying for power, could impact negatively on Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikstan, and beyond, where Russian ethnic populations are coping with the new situation in the Central Asian Republics following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Concomitantly, the regimes in Iran and the Sudan will continue to seek targets of opportunity to export their militant brand of Islam.