NATO had never carried out
a formal study on the enlargement of the alliance until quite recently,
when the Working Group on NATO Enlargement issued its report. No doubt
there were internal classified studies, but nothing is known of their content
to outsiders.
Despite the lack of clear
analysis, however, the engines for moving things forward were working hard
from late 1991. At the end of that year, NATO created the North Atlantic
Cooperation Council. NATO member nations then invited 9 Central and East
European countries to join the NACC in order to begin fostering cooperation
between the NATO powers and former members of the Warsaw Pact.
This was a first effort to
offer something to East European countries wishing to join NATO itself.
The NACC, however, did not really satisfy the demands of those countries,
and in the beginning of 1994 the US launched the idea of a Partnership
for Peace. The PFP offered nations wishing to join NATO the possibility
of co-operating in various NATO activities, including training exercises
and peacekeeping. More than 20 countries, including Russia, are now participating
in the PFP.
Many of these countries wish
eventually to join NATO. Russia obviously will not join. It believes that
NATO should not be moving eastwards. According to the Center for Defense
Infromation in Washington, a respected independent research center on military
affairs, Russia is participating in the PFP "to avoid being shut out
of the European security structure altogether." (6)
The movement toward the enlargement
of NATO has therefore been steadily gathering momentum. The creation of
the North Atlantic Cooperation Council was more or less an expression of
sympathy and openness toward those aspiring to NATO membership. But it
did not carry things very far. The creation of the Partnership for Peace
was more concrete. It actually involved former Warsaw Pact members in NATO
itself. It also began a "two-track" policy toward Russia, in
which Russia was given a more or less empty relationship with NATO simply
to allay its concerns about NATO expansion.
However, despite this continous
development, the public rationale for this expansion has for the most part
rested on fairly vague premises. And this leads to the question of what
has been driving the expansion of NATO during the last four years. The
question must be posed for two areas: the Balkans and the countries of
Central Europe. For there is an important struggle going on in the Balkans,
a struggle for mastery of the southern Balkans in particular. And NATO
is now involved in that struggle. There is also, of course, a new drift
back to Cold-War policies on the part of certain Western countries. And
that drift is carrying NATO into Central Europe.